Trump has been elected the President of the United States of America. The general response of many people and political parties across the world is that Donald Trump does not seem to possess a sane enough personality to manage his position as the most powerful person in the world in a very pleasant manner. As far as Indian views are concerned, we are nevertheless concerned almost completely with the effects of Trump’s presidency on India. Hence, let us analyze.
Positive Impact on India
Not signing TPP: India should be happy that Trump will not be signing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This conclusion arises from the fact that multilaterals like TPP bypass the conventions ofWorld Trade Organization (WTO) in several important issues.
His potential focus on India: Trump seems to be holding hostile views towards numerous nations in Latin America, East and West Asia, and Europe. If such remains the pace, India will benefit as a byproduct by gaining substantial positive attention of the US government.
Pulling out US troops: It is well worth noting that Trump plans to recede US troops from Asia. Excluding the sovereigns in countries like the KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) from consideration, involvement of US troops in the Middle East does not bode well for anyone. Generally speaking, if Trump plans to concentrate mostly on domestic finance like Bill Clinton did, his presidency is favorable to India.
Business-mind: Trump has the soul of a businessman, and thus, in spite of his little political experience, there are chances that he will turn out to be far more practical in his approaches and decisions as he seems to antagonists who are cheerily following and supporting him.
Negative Impact on India
Trade war with China: The US under Trump may end up declaring trade war with China. If such happen to be the circumstances, countries in friendly relations with the US may be expected to choose sides, which will be unhealthy to India as it contradicts to our wise policy of remaining in good terms with everyone.
Reduced Indo-US trade: Trump may reduce trade with India due to certain conservative views towards international outsourcing. This, however, is not absolutely certain considering that Indian trade with the US is not as much as that of China, and immigration of Indians into the US is not as enormous as that of Mexicans. There is, therefore, a great probability that India will walk by unnoticed in these issues.
Neutral Aspects of Trump’s Presidency
Low chances of reducing H1B visas: Although Trump has mentioned his intentions to discourage H1B visas, the issue is not really his priority. Moreover, he has admitted to have outsourced work to foreign employees as a businessman to reduce costs. More than 50% of India’s software industry depends on the US, and American companies enjoying good work at low price from countries like India may not let him cut down on H1B visas.
Senate’s control over foreign policy: The Senate in the US has most of the control over the nation’s foreign policy, and since not much of it is changing, India’s economic benefits from the US have low chances of getting disturbed.
Overestimated hawkishness: in 1980, people were just as skeptical about Reagan as they now are towards Trump becoming the President. Besides, a few indirect adversities such as the birth of Al Qaeda and Taliban, Reagan did not turn out to be as insane in his dealings as had been estimated.
Image Source: http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2015/dec/01/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-president-obama-wants-us-take-25/